Results are shown in Table 3. After a median follow-up of 4.2 years, the incidence of invasive breast cancer was reduced by 44% among women assigned to NOLVADEX (86 cases-NOLVADEX, 156 cases-placebo; p < 0.00001; relative risk (RR)=0.56, 95% CI: 0.43-0.72). A reduction in the incidence of breast cancer was seen in each prospectively specified age group ( ≤ 49, 50-59, ≥ 60), in women with or without LCIS, and in each of the absolute risk levels specified in Table 3. A non-significant decrease in the incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) was seen (23-NOLVADEX, 35-placebo; RR=0.66; 95% CI: 0.39-1.11).

There was no statistically significant difference in the number of myocardial infarctions, severe angina, or acute ischemic cardiac events between the two groups (61-NOLVADEX, 59-placebo; RR=1.04, 95% CI: 0.73-1.49).

No overall difference in mortality (53 deaths in NOLVADEX group vs. 65 deaths in placebo group) was present. No difference in breast cancer-related mortality was observed (4 deaths in NOLVADEX group vs. 5 deaths in placebo group).

Although there was a non-significant reduction in the number of hip fractures (9 on NOLVADEX, 20 on placebo) in the NOLVADEX group, the number of wrist fractures was similar in the two treatment groups (69 on NOLVADEX, 74 on placebo). A subgroup analysis of the P-1 trial, suggests a difference in effect in bone mineral density (BMD) related to menopausal status in patients receiving NOLVADEX. In postmenopausal women there was no evidence of bone loss of the lumbar spine and hip. Conversely, NOLVADEX was associated with significant bone loss of the lumbar spine and hip in premenopausal women.

The risks of NOLVADEX therapy include endometrial cancer, DVT, PE, stroke, cataract formation and cataract surgery (See Table 3). In the NSABP P-1 trial, 33 cases of endometrial cancer were observed in the NOLVADEX group vs. 14 in the placebo group (RR=2.48, 95% CI: 1.27-4.92). Deep vein thrombosis was observed in 30 women receiving NOLVADEX vs. 19 in women receiving placebo (RR=1.59, 95% CI: 0.86-2.98). Eighteen cases of pulmonary embolism were observed in the NOLVADEX group vs. 6 in the placebo group (RR=3.01, 95% CI: 1.15-9.27). There were 34 strokes on the NOLVADEX arm and 24 on the placebo arm (RR=1.42; 95% CI: 0.82-2.51). Cataract formation in women without cataracts at baseline was observed in 540 women taking NOLVADEX vs. 483 women receiving placebo (RR=1.13, 95% CI: 1.00-1.28). Cataract surgery (with or without cataracts at baseline) was performed in 201 women taking NOLVADEX vs. 129 women receiving placebo (RR=1.51, 95% CI: 1.21-1.89) (See WARNINGS).

Table 3 summarizes the major outcomes of the NSABP P-1 trial. For each endpoint, the following results are presented: the number of events and rate per 1000 women per year for the placebo and NOLVADEX groups; and the relative risk (RR) and its associated 95% confidence interval (CI) between NOLVADEX and placebo. Relative risks less than 1.0 indicate a benefit of NOLVADEX therapy. The limits of the confidence intervals can be used to assess the statistical significance of the benefits or risks of NOLVADEX therapy. If the upper limit of the CI is less than 1.0, then a statistically significant benefit exists.

For most participants, multiple risk factors would have been required for eligibility. This table considers risk factors individually, regardless of other co-existing risk factors, for women who developed breast cancer. The 5-year predicted absolute breast cancer risk accounts for multiple risk factors in an individual and should provide the best estimate of individual benefit (See INDICATIONS AND USAGE).

Table 3. Major Outcomes of the NSABP P-1 Trial

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